During these days of COVID-19, epidemiologists have been front and center in the news. For those who might be wondering what epidemiology is, the CDC defines epidemiology as:

"Epidemiology is the method used to find the causes of health outcomes and diseases in populations.In
epidemiology, the patient is the community and individuals are viewed collectively. By definition, epidemiology is the study (scientific, systematic, and data-driven) of the distribution (frequency, pattern) and determinants (causes, risk factors) of health-related states and events (not just diseases) in specified populations (neighborhood, school, city, state, country, global). It is also the application of this study to the control of health problems"

As a member of the American Statistical Society (ASA) I subscribe to their Significance Magazine and in the latest issue (August 2020) there was an article which caught my eye, "John Graunt at 400 - Fighting disease with numbers" by Timandra Harkness (posted below). Since I have been doing a lot of study of epidemiology of late (purely from a statistical point of view) it was the title that initially caught my eye but it was what it contained that really got my attention.

Let me explain.

Though being short (only four pages), Ms. Harkness' article does an excellent job of describing how John Graunt (born in 1620 in London), a haberdasher and a Fellow of the Royal Society, laid the foundation of "fighting disease with numbers" that the epidemiologists of today have built upon. Quite fascinating. But, besides its intrinsic interest (to me, at least), the article highlights some rather interesting insight into who John Graunt was and the sufferings endured during his life. Besides losing two children, Ms. Harkness describes how his strong religious beliefs, especially his conversion to Catholicism, not only influenced his work, but led to him being an outcast. With respect to Graunt's conversion, Ms. Harkness states:

"Having grown up Protestant, with Nonconformist tendencies, he later converted to Roman Catholicism, which was not a soft option in a time of strong anti-Catholic prejudice and legal discrimination."

In the course of Graunt's ground breaking work, Ms. Harkness states that from his studies of data he

"...deduces that Christian monogamy 'is more agreeable to the Law of Nature, that is, the Law of God', than polygamy..."

To me, it is quite interesting how his analysis of data supported "the Law of God". His work apparently did not sit well with others, for Ms. Harkness concludes the article with though

"Graunt's method underpins the work of demographers, actuaries, public health professionals,
epidemiologists and statisticians today"

"His life had a sad end, however. Graunt's home, and his business, burned down in the Great Fire of London in 1666. He never recovered financially, in spite of help from his close friend William Petty, was ostracised for his Roman Catholic religion, and twice taken to court for 'recusancy' (non-attendance of
Anglican church services). John Graunt died in 1674, aged 53, and his wife had to apply for a pension ... on the grounds of poverty. After his death, his book was often credited to Petty (and on Amazon it still is)."

(Indeed, I checked that last point about Amazon and found this among others.)

Not being an expert on the life of John Graunt by any stretch and though being amazed at, and grateful for, his work, the things that resonated the most to me with what Ms. Harkness wrote was his strong Catholic faith regardless of the ramifications and how he saw God in data.

And, that brings me joy and inspires me.

It also affirmed, to me at least, that yes (!) one can

See God in Statistics!

Here is the article. It is definitely worth a read on many levels.

John Graunt at 400 - Fighting disease with numbers by Timandra Harkness